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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Kennesaw St.

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:301.0
Current RPI:301
Expected SOS:247
Current SOS:247
Current Record:8-20
Expected Record:8-20
Current Conf Record:6-9
Expected Conf Record:6-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-6
Current OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC Record:2-11
Expected OOC RPI:282
Expected OOC SOS:82



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
8-20301.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Kennesaw St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Butler (41.0)BEA82-64L0%0.0
11-13Hofstra (121.0)CAAA75-57L0%0.0
11-18Tennessee Tech (158.0)OVCA82-68L0%0.0
11-22Florida St. (54.0)ACCA98-79L0%0.0
11-25Tennessee St. (189.0)OVCH74-77L0%0.0
11-28Washington (71.0)P12A85-71L0%0.0
11-30Seattle (165.0)WACA66-54L0%0.0
12-13Texas Tech (23.0)B12A82-53L0%0.0
12-16Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACH81-74W100%0.0
12-19Georgia Southern (140.0)SBH69-78L0%0.0
12-21Samford (296.0)SCH71-66W100%0.0
12-28Mercer (174.0)SCA89-56L0%0.0
12-30Yale (183.0)IvyH74-89L0%0.0
1-6Lipscomb (101.0)ASunH71-86L0%0.0
1-11Jacksonville (286.0)ASunA65-58L0%0.0
1-13North Florida (218.0)ASunA85-78L0%0.0
1-18Stetson (325.0)ASunH95-81W100%0.0
1-20Florida Gulf Coast (172.0)ASunH49-66L0%0.0
1-24NJIT (269.0)ASunH60-66L0%0.0
1-27USC Upstate (344.0)ASunA80-81W100%0.0
1-29NJIT (269.0)ASunA74-71L0%0.0
2-3USC Upstate (344.0)ASunH93-69W100%0.0
2-8North Florida (218.0)ASunH89-81W100%0.0
2-10Jacksonville (286.0)ASunH78-54W100%0.0
2-15Florida Gulf Coast (172.0)ASunA93-97W100%0.0
2-17Stetson (325.0)ASunA86-74L0%0.0
2-22Lipscomb (101.0)ASunA83-74L0%0.0
2-26Jacksonville (286.0)ASunA87-68L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Kennesaw St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Kennesaw St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Kennesaw St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Kennesaw St.ASun26.4026.4027.5927.59-11.83-11.83
JacksonvilleASun6.196.1934.6234.62-1.90-1.90
LipscombASun4.654.6566.6766.671.551.55
Florida Gulf CoastASun4.574.5765.5265.521.421.42
North FloridaASun4.504.5035.7135.71-1.29-1.29
StetsonASun4.464.4626.9226.92-2.06-2.06
NJITASun4.434.4338.4638.46-1.02-1.02
USC UpstateASun4.434.4311.5411.54-3.40-3.40
Bethune CookmanMEAC1.971.9755.1755.170.200.20
Tennessee TechOVC1.911.9153.3353.330.130.13
Tennessee St.OVC1.901.9044.4444.44-0.21-0.21
MercerSC1.851.8551.7251.720.060.06
SamfordSC1.851.8527.5927.59-0.83-0.83
WashingtonP121.851.8561.2961.290.420.42
SeattleWAC1.811.8155.1755.170.190.19
ButlerBE1.791.7959.3859.380.330.33
Florida St.ACC1.791.7963.3363.330.480.48
Georgia SouthernSB1.791.7960.0060.000.360.36
HofstraCAA1.791.7958.6258.620.310.31
Texas TechB121.791.7971.8871.880.780.78
YaleIvy1.791.7948.2848.28-0.06-0.06
BelmontOVC0.300.3072.7372.730.140.14
Jacksonville St.OVC0.240.2462.5062.500.060.06
WoffordSC0.240.2460.0060.000.050.05
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.210.2144.4444.44-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.210.2131.0331.03-0.08-0.08
Morehead St.OVC0.210.2122.2222.22-0.12-0.12
TexasB120.200.2057.5857.580.030.03
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.190.1930.0030.00-0.07-0.07
FIUCUSA0.180.1837.9337.93-0.04-0.04
ChattanoogaSC0.180.1825.8125.81-0.09-0.09
FurmanSC0.170.1767.7467.740.060.06
Seton HallBE0.170.1765.6265.620.050.05
Gardner WebbBSth0.160.1637.9337.93-0.04-0.04
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.150.1556.2556.250.020.02
DrexelCAA0.150.1537.5037.50-0.04-0.04
UMKCWAC0.150.1527.5927.59-0.07-0.07
South Carolina St.MEAC0.150.1526.6726.67-0.07-0.07
MichiganB100.150.1579.4179.410.090.09
Florida A&MMEAC0.150.1524.2424.24-0.08-0.08
South AlabamaSB0.150.1540.0040.00-0.03-0.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.150.1571.8871.880.060.06
The CitadelSC0.150.1527.5927.59-0.07-0.07
CreightonBE0.150.1564.5264.520.040.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.150.1576.6776.670.080.08
GeorgetownBE0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
West VirginiaB120.140.1470.5970.590.060.06
CampbellBSth0.130.1346.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.120.1234.4834.48-0.04-0.04
BrownIvy0.120.1238.4638.46-0.03-0.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.120.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
PurdueB100.120.1282.3582.350.080.08
NavyPat0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
UNC GreensboroSC0.120.1277.4277.420.070.07
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
VMISC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
Western CarolinaSC0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
ClemsonACC0.120.1271.8871.880.050.05
Miami FLACC0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
Washington St.P120.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.120.1260.6160.610.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
KansasB120.110.1179.4179.410.070.07
TCUB120.110.1165.6265.620.040.04
VillanovaBE0.110.1188.2488.240.080.08
IonaMAAC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
South FloridaAmer0.090.0931.2531.25-0.04-0.04
UCFAmer0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.090.0942.4242.42-0.01-0.01
FairfieldMAAC0.090.0951.5251.520.000.00
MilwaukeeHorz0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.090.0913.3313.33-0.07-0.07
UABCUSA0.090.0958.0658.060.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
AlabamaSEC0.090.0955.8855.880.010.01
TennesseeSEC0.090.0975.7675.760.050.05
Austin PeayOVC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Murray St.OVC0.090.0982.7682.760.060.06
New Mexico St.WAC0.090.0983.3383.330.060.06
PennIvy0.090.0974.1974.190.040.04
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
DelawareCAA0.090.0938.7138.71-0.02-0.02
LSUSEC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
FloridaSEC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Georgia TechACC0.090.0940.6240.62-0.02-0.02
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.090.0916.6716.67-0.06-0.06
TowsonCAA0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
SienaMAAC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.04-0.04
PrincetonIvy0.090.0942.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
LouisvilleACC0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.090.0943.3343.33-0.01-0.01
CaliforniaP120.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
ColoradoP120.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
Oregon St.P120.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
UtahP120.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
ProvidenceBE0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
BuffaloMAC0.060.0675.7675.760.030.03
ColgatePat0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
DuquesneA100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
Green BayHorz0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
LafayettePat0.060.0630.0030.00-0.03-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.060.0651.5251.520.000.00
MaristMAAC0.060.0619.3519.35-0.04-0.04
MinnesotaB100.060.0646.8846.88-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
UMass LowellAE0.060.0637.9337.93-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
WagnerNEC0.060.0670.0070.000.030.03
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Ball St.MAC0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.060.063.333.33-0.06-0.06
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
ColumbiaIvy0.060.0626.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.060.0615.6215.62-0.04-0.04
CornellIvy0.060.0640.7440.74-0.01-0.01
DartmouthIvy0.060.0623.0823.08-0.03-0.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
ElonCAA0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
HarvardIvy0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
James MadisonCAA0.060.0629.0329.03-0.02-0.02
MemphisAmer0.060.0661.7661.760.010.01
Michigan St.B100.060.0687.8887.880.050.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
MissouriSEC0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
Norfolk St.MEAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
VCUA100.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
William & MaryCAA0.060.0658.6258.620.010.01
DaytonA100.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Illinois St.MVC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Little RockSB0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.060.0628.5728.57-0.02-0.02
Rhode IslandA100.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
St. Francis NYNEC0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Wake ForestACC0.060.0635.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.Amer0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Saint LouisA100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Nebraska OmahaSum0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Virginia TechACC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
OregonP120.060.0664.7164.710.020.02
StanfordP120.060.0654.5554.550.010.01
BaylorB120.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
DePaulBE0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
OklahomaB120.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
St. John'sBE0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.050.0584.8584.850.040.04
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.039.689.68-0.02-0.02
AlbanyAE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
ArmyPat0.030.0341.3841.38-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Boston UniversityPat0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
BryantNEC0.030.039.689.68-0.02-0.02
Cal PolyBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.036.676.67-0.03-0.03
DetroitHorz0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
HamptonMEAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
LehighPat0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
LibertyBSth0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0312.5012.50-0.02-0.02
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
PortlandWCC0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
RiderMAAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.030.0378.1278.120.020.02
Stony BrookAE0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.02-0.02
ValparaisoMVC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
WisconsinB100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
BradleyMVC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
FordhamA100.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Loyola MDPat0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
Notre DameACC0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
PittsburghACC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0393.9493.940.030.03
ArizonaP120.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
Arizona St.P120.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
UC DavisBW0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
UCLAP120.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
USCP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
MaineAE0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
NevadaMWC0.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
NorthwesternB100.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
Portland St.BSky0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Western IllinoisSum0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02